Most mortgaged metros in USA

images-22LawnStarter, a lawn care provider, put together data from the U.S. Census Bureau to showthe 14 metros with the highest percentage of homes with a mortgage. LawnStarter used Census Bureau data from the largest 100 metro areas in 2015 and compared the number of owner-occupied homes to owner-occupied homes with a mortgage in each metro.

14. Salt Lake City, Utah

Number of owner-occupied homes: 249,644
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 180,785
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 72.4%

13. Sacramento, California

Number of owner-occupied homes: 474,156
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 343,477
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 72.4%

12. Portland, Oregon

Number of owner-occupied homes: 550,790
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 399,066
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 72.4%

11. San Francisco, California

Number of owner-occupied homes: 903,500
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 656,117
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 72.6%

10. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Virginia

Number of owner-occupied homes: 388,768
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 283,044
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 72.8%

9. Indianapolis, Indiana

Number of owner-occupied homes: 484,654
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 352,902
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 72.8%

8. Seattle, Washington

Number of owner-occupied homes: 861,541
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 632,110
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 73.3%

7. Atlanta, Georgia

Number of owner-occupied homes: 1,248,726
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 919,180
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 73.6%

6. Provo-Orem, Utah

Number of owner-occupied homes: 106,725
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 78,739
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 73.7%

5. Colorado Springs, Colorado

Number of owner-occupied homes: 161,617
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 120,943
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 74.8%

4. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, California

Number of owner-occupied homes: 170,602
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 127,747
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 74.8%

3. Raleigh, North Carolina

Number of owner-occupied homes: 303,885
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 229,349
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 75.4%

2. Denver, Colorado

Number of owner-occupied homes: 677,167
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 515,339
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 76.1%

1. District of Columbia

Number of owner-occupied homes: 1,352,332
Number of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 1,069,934
Percentage of owner-occupied homes with mortgage: 79.1%

Tips for buy a home

unduhan-34While this is great news for sellers or homeowners, the news isn’t as welcome to potential homebuyers.

While some news reports, like this one here, as well as online real estate listing services, such as Trulia, say now is a good time to buy a home, mortgage-wise, there are several other factors to consider before jumping into the housing market.

In other words, here’s why you should wait to buy a home.

Inventory also remains down as less than 450,000 new listings came on the market in September, while the median home price rose 9% from last year to $250,000, a new high for the month, according to the data from realtor.com.

In August, Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, said that without new housing construction, the housing recovery could stall.

Housing inventory declined annually for 15 consecutive months, and properties closed 11 days quicker than August last year, according to the Pending Home sales report by NAR.

These constraints keep home buyers out of the market, despite mortgage rates being at historical lows. Last week, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage decreased again to a 10-week low, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.

This trend looks like it will continue not just in the fall, but even into 2017.

The trials that plagued the California housing market in 2016 aren’t expected to get too much better in 2017 as the real estate market is projected to face another year of supply shortages and affordability constraints, according to the “2017 California Housing Market Forecast” released by the California Association of Realtors.

And California isn’t the only hot market. HousingWire recently took a deeper look into Dallas’ housing market as we raised these questions: At what point does a booming market become an overheating one? Can we really pinpoint when San Francisco crossed the line? Has Dallas crossed it yet?

While it may not have crossed the line just yet, there is no doubt that affordability constraints continue to tighten in the city.

Nationally, home affordability is at its worst level in seven years, with 24% of the U.S. county housing markets less affordable than their historic affordability averages in the third quarter, the most recent ATTOM Data Solutions Home Affordability Index for third quarter 2016 recorded.

However, not all hope is lost. The most recent S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices results showed that household incomes are actually rising faster than home prices, leading some experts to believe the affordability crisis could be almost over.

Housing price bubble on the horizon

images-23Millennials are more likely than other generations to expect a price bubble and correction in the next two years with 60% of Millennials versus 47% of the total American population.

Prospective first-time homebuyers in particular are nervous about market instability – only 25% of these Millennial non-homeowners are confident that the 2008 housing crisis will not happen again in their lifetimes, according to the index.

With that said, 70% of Millennials still say the American Dream is alive and well, they just describe it different than previous generations. They prefer to own a home, but don’t want to be tied down.

In fact, 83% of Millennials claim that their definition of the American dream is “owning a home on my own terms while staying mobile, agile and financially secure.” About 81% of Millennials plan to live in their current home for less than five years.

The index shows that 76% of non-homeowners want to buy a home, however only 38% are confident they can afford a down payment.

And it’s no wonder. In some areas, the lack of affordable housing is making it much more difficult for students to continue in their career, much less buy a home after they graduate.

Student loan debt is playing its biggest role in the mortgage process yet, and it doesn’t look like it’s changing anytime soon. After all, many Millennials have yet to finish college, and the tail end of the generation is barely 18.

But some experts say that while student debt has a bigger role, it’s not necessarily the worst thing to ever happen to housing. Here’s why.

Either way, like it or not, Millennials are currently the largest generation, and the future of housing. According to Freddie Mac, they are the key to improving the homeownership rate.

Most important group

The homeownership gap between immigrants and the native-born is closing as more foreign-born U.S. residents move towards buying homes, according to a new report from Trulia.

Trulia used the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and American Community Survey data for this study. For calculations involving the American Community Survey data, the company used five-year 2014 data.

Not only are immigrants closing the gap, but states where immigrants resided in the U.S. for longer periods of time also have higher rates of immigrant homeownership, according to the report.

While those born outside the U.S. still lag behind those born in the U.S., the homeownership gap has been shrinking since 2000. The gap now rests at 15.4 percentage points, down from 20.7 percentage points in 2001.

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The homeownership rate for those born in the U.S. remained roughly unchanged from 1994 to 2015, however the rate for immigrants increased 2.3 percentage points.

Americans are increasingly divided on the subject of immigration, but immigrants play a critical role in driving our housing economy, and, by extension, our long-term economic prosperity. This article explains why immigrants are crucial to economic growth.

While New York and California both hold the largest immigrant population, they differ drastically when it comes to the homeownership gap. In New York, immigrants lag behind by 20.1 percentage points, however in California, the gap is only 9.7 percentage points.

While the homeownership gap in California is decreasing, San Francisco’s competitive employment market is causing many construction companies to lose workers and driving a trend towards more expensive housing.

There’s one less-noticed factor that is impacting the current shortage of cheap service labor and shortage of affordable housing: the education level of immigrants has been rising. In fact, this study shows that new American immigrants are more likely to be buying suburban houses than building them.

This could be explained by the sudden shift in type of immigrants coming to the U.S. As it turns out, since 2008, the flow of undocumented immigrants into the country slowed dramatically, and at times even reversed as more were going back than coming in, data from Goldman Sachs shows.

Final nail in the coffin of foreclosure

Foreclosure activity dipped to its lowest point since before the foreclosure crisis, according to the September and Q3 2016 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released by ATTOM Data Solutions, the new parent company of RealtyTrac.

The number of properties with new foreclosure filings – default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions – in September decreased 13% from last month and 24% from last year to 82,972. This marks the lowest point since December 2005.

Another recent report shows foreclosure inventory in August declined significantly from last year, hitting its lowest point since the housing boom, according to CoreLogic.

“Foreclosure activity has been on a steady slide downward over the past six years, finally dropping back below pre-crisis levels in September,” said Daren Blomquist, ATTOM Data Solutions senior vice president. “While we’ve know that the national foreclosure problem has been dying a long, slow death for quite some time, the final nail in the coffin of the foreclosure crisis is the year-over-year decrease in the average foreclosure timeline nationwide that we saw in Q3 2016 — the first time that’s happened since we began tracking foreclosure timelines in Q1 2007.”

Properties took an average of 625 days to complete foreclosure in the third quarter, down from 631 days last quarter, and down from 630 days last year. This is the first annual decrease since ATTOM began tracking average foreclosure timelines in the first quarter of 2007.

“The decrease in the average foreclosure timeline indicates that banks have worked through the bulk of the legacy foreclosure backlog in most states — with a few lingering exceptions — and that most of the foreclosures being completed now are relatively recent defaults that are more efficiently progressing through the foreclosure pipeline,” Blomquist said.

Some states have much shorter timelines, such as Virginia with 196 days, New Hampshire with 230 days, Texas with 246 days, Minnesota with 250 days and Mississippi with 253 days.

On the other hand, some states have much longer times to close on foreclosures, including New Jersey with 1,262 days, Hawaii with 1,241 days, New York with 1,070 days, Florida with 1,038 days and Illinois with 942 days.

Jobs to the economy

“The current record of consecutive monthly job gains continued in September,” Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said. “With job openings at all-time highs and layoffs near all-time lows, the job market remains in full-swing.”

“Job growth has moderated in recent months, but only because the economy is finally returning to full-employment,” Zandi said.

While the report showed an increase of 151,000 in the service-providing sector, the increase came in at only 3,000 in the goods-producing sector.

Some gains, or losses, were made in these areas:

“Job gains in September eased a bit when compared to the past 12-month average,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, ADP vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “We also observed softening this month in trade/transportation/utilities, possibly due to a continued tightening U.S. labor market and lackluster consumer spending.”

While ADP’s prediction in August came closer to the employment report with a prediction of 177,000 versus the report’s 151,000, it hasn’t had the best track record.

In July, ADP predicted a jobs increase of 179,000, but the report came in much higher at 255,000. In June, ADP predicted a jobs increase of 172,000, right before the report came in at 287,000. Before that, ADP predicted an increase of 173,000, and the report came in at a shockingly low 38,000.

However, the predicted uptick in construction is much needed.

Home inventory fell for the fifth straight quarter in July, nearing record lows, according to the most recent report by Trulia.

In fact, San Francisco’s competitive employment market is causing many construction companies to lose workers and driving a trend towards more expensive housing.

Housing markets for next year

The past year showed a rise in housing markets in the Northwest, and a cooling in the West in previously hot markets such as San Francisco. It seems that trend will continue into next year.

A new report from Veros Real Estate Solutions, which works in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, shows the strongest and weakest markets for the next 12 months ending in Sept. 1, 2015.

However, the trials that plagued the California housing market in 2016 aren’t expected to get too much better in 2017 as the real estate market is projected to face another year of supply shortages and affordability constraints, according to the “2017 California Housing Market Forecast” released by the California Association of Realtors.

Of the top 25 markets, 15 were confined to four states in the Northwest, which is almost unprecedented, according to the report.

“In markets with this level of national appreciation it is most common to see a broad distribution of markets contributing to the rise,” said Eric Fox, Veros vice president of statistical and economic modeling.

“What is remarkable from where we stand today is the possible concentration risk when home price appreciation and market activity become highly clustered in only a few regional areas,” Fox said.

The forecast from Veros says the housing market will heat up in the Northwest, however while it is still clearly a seller’s market in the Northwest, some signs seem to be pointing towards a shift to a more balanced market, according to a report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Here are the top five strongest markets predicted by Vero:

5. Boise City, Idaho, with a forecasted appreciation of 9.7%

4. Seattle, Washington, with a forecasted appreciation of 10.2%

3. Fort Collins, Colorado, with a forecasted appreciation of 10.3%

2. Boulder, Colorado, with a forecasted appreciation of 10.5%

1. Denver, Colorado, with a forecasted appreciation of 10.8%

 

Confident than any time

The Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 87.9 at the beginning of October, its lowest level since last September and the second lowest level in the past two years, according to the Survey of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan.

The Surveys of Consumers is an indicator of the future course of the national economy. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone from the Ann Arbor facility.

The decrease is most evident in households with incomes below $75,000, whose index fell to its lowest level since August of 2014.

“In contrast, confidence among upper income households remained unchanged in early October from last month, and more importantly, at a level that was nearly identical to its average in the prior twenty-four months at 98.3 versus 98.2,” said Richard Curtin, Survey of Consumers’ chief economist.

The current economic conditions increased 1.2% from last month’s 104.2 and 3.1% from last year’s 82.1 to October’s early sentiment of 105.5.

“Perhaps the most concerning figure was a decline in the Expectations Index, which fell to its lowest level in the past two years, again mainly due to declines among households with incomes below $75,000,” Curtin said.

“It is likely that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election had a negative impact, especially among lower income consumers, and without that added uncertainty, the confidence measures may not have weakened,” Curtin added.

The Index of Consumer Expectations, which is included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, decreased 7.4% from last month’s 82.7 to 76.6. This is also down 6.7% from last year’s 82.1.

An article by Jill Mislinski for Advisor Perspectives explains what this means historically:

The Michigan average since its inception is 85.4. During non-recessionary years the average is 87.6. The average during the five recessions is 69.3.

“Prospects for renewed gains, other than a relief rally following the election results, would require somewhat larger wage increases and continued job growth as well as the maintenance of low inflation,” Curtin said. “Overall, real personal consumption can be expected to increase by 2.5% through mid 2017.”

While the index is at its lowest since last year, not everyone sees it as a negative sign.

“Despite declining in October, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence remains at a fairly high level by past standards and consistent with a decent rate of consumption growth,” Capital Economics Economist Andrew Hunter said.

“Accordingly, despite the weaker retail sales data released earlier today, we still expect real consumption to slow only gradually over the rest of this year,” Hunter said.

What is the summer housing market say

In August, Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, said that without new housing construction, the housing recovery could stall.

Housing inventory declined annually for 15 consecutive months, and properties closed 11 days quicker than August last year, according to the Pending Home sales report by NAR.

Inventory also remains down as less than 450,000 new listings came on the market in September, while the median home price rose 9% from last year to $250,000, a new high for the month.

“House hunters who were shut out this summer because of fierce competition could fare better this fall, with more opportunities to buy and mortgage rates still near all-time lows,” realtor.com Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke said. “But don’t expect bargains—prices haven’t come down from this summer’s record highs.”

“Overall, the fundamental trends we have been seeing all year remain solidly in place as we enter the traditionally slower sales season, and pent-up demand remains substantial as buyers seek to get a home under contract while rates remain so low,” Smoke said.

The summer housing market saw high demand next to rising home prices, but don’t expect Fall to bring any relief. In fact, it could bring the hottest fall in a decade, new data from realtor.com shows.

Home sales in September moved 4% faster than last year, according to the data. The number of days on market is also expected to decreased by three days from last year.

Homeownership rate surpasses national average for first time

“Phoenix continues its remarkable recovery from the volatility of the housing market boom and bust cycle, where it was one of the hardest hit cities in the country,” Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga said.

“The city’s strong underlying economic fundamentals, high employment, growing wages and increasing population, bode well for continued growth in the housing market,” Sharga said.

Existing home sales in the city increased 12.5% from last year to 123,600 during the second quarter, according to the report. This is a new cyclical peak, and passed up the national average for the first time since early 2015.

While home sales are increasing, available inventory remains tight even after an increase of 7.2% from last year. New home construction remained weak, with both housing starts and permits down on a year-over-year basis, and lagging well below historical levels.

Home price appreciation slowed, but continues to increase in the metro. In the second quarter the median home price in Phoenix increased 8.4% from last year to $222,194.

“Compared to other major metropolitan areas, Phoenix real estate remains relatively affordable, even as prices continue to rise,” Sharga said.